Friday, July 31, 2015

Tsipras Survives for Now as Party Rebels Blast Greece Rescue

by Nikos ChrysolorasEleni Chrepa
July 31, 2015 — 10:53 AM EEST Updated on July 31, 2015 — 12:05 PM EEST
Bloomberg

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras staved off an immediate challenge to his premiership, though failure to appease his party’s hard-left fringe brought early elections into view.
After 12 hours of talks, the central committee of the anti-austerity Syriza party decided in the early hours of Friday to hold an emergency congress in September, in which Tsipras’ move to accept a strings-attached rescue program from international creditors will be put to the vote. Leaders of the party’s Left Platform protested that will be too late to stop the bailout, but failed in their bid to force a party congress this weekend.

Italy is the most likely country to leave the euro

Washington Post
By Matt O'Brien July 30 at 2:56 PM

What do you call a country that has grown 4.6 percent—in total—since it joined the euro 16 years ago? Well, probably the one most likely to leave the common currency. Or Italy, for short.

It's hard to say what went wrong with Italy, because nothing ever went right. It grew 4 percent its first year or so in the euro, but almost not at all in the 15 years since. Now, that's not to say that it's been flat the whole time. It hasn't. It got as much as 14 percent bigger as it was when it joined the euro, before the 2008 recession and 2011 double-dip erased most of that progress. But unlike, say, Greece, there was never much of a boom. There has only been a bust. The result, though, has been the same. As you can see below, Greece and Italy have both grown a meager 4.6 percent the past 16 years, although they took drastically different paths to get there.

Bailout Money Goes to Greece, Only to Flow Out Again

By JACK EWING and LIZ ALDERMANJULY 30, 2015

The New York Times

FRANKFURT — The Greek businessman was nervous as he carried a suitcase stuffed with cash through passport control at the Athens airport a few months ago. But the distracted and overworked customs officials waved him through.

A few hours later the man touched down in Frankfurt, where he quickly deposited the money in a German bank.

Το αφανές κόστος της «επανάστασης»

ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ 30.07.2015 : 12:38
Του Πάσχου Μανδραβέλη
Εφημερίδα Καθημερινή

Θέλουμε να ελπίζουμε ότι ανάμεσα σ’ αυτούς που χόρευαν και πανηγύριζαν το βράδυ του δημοψηφίσματος (5.7.2015) στο Σύνταγμα δεν ήταν κάτοικοι των υποβαθμισμένων περιοχών της δυτικής Αθήνας. Κι αυτό διότι τα γέλια θα τους βγουν ξινά. Οχι μόνο επειδή η κυβέρνηση «κοινωνικής σωτηρίας» τούς πότιζε επί έναν μήνα τοξικά του Ασπρόπυργου, χωρίς να κάνει το παραμικρό. Θα έχουν κι άλλες επιπτώσεις στην καθημερινότητά τους από τη «μεγαλοπρεπή διαπραγμάτευση» του κ. Γιάνη Βαρουφάκη και την «αριστερή αντίσταση» του κ. Παναγιώτη Λαφαζάνη. Το μετρό, για παράδειγμα, ένα έργο πνοής για την πρωτεύουσα και σωτήριο για τα χαμηλά βαλάντια, μπαίνει στο χρονοντούλαπο της τραπεζικής αργίας, που τόσο αφρόνως και ηρωικώς προέκρινε η κυβέρνηση.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Greece’s Alexis Tsipras Faces Battle to Avoid Syriza Split

Ruling party’s central committee to decide whether to hold inner-party referendum

The Wall Street Journal

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI and  VIKTORIA DENDRINOU
Updated July 29, 2015 12:57 p.m. ET
10 COMMENTS
ATHENSGreece’s ruling Syriza party is sliding toward a split as far-left dissidents resist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s acquiescence to creditors’ demands, endangering his fragile government and complicating the country’s bailout negotiations.

Pressed by left, Greece's Tsipras vows 'thus far and no further'

ATHENS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND ANGELIKI KOUTANTOU
Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:00am BST Related: WORLD

Reuters

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, struggling to contain a revolt in his left-wing Syriza party, said on Wednesday that his government would not implement reform measures beyond those agreed with lenders at a euro zone summit this month.

Tsipras faces a tough Syriza central committee session on Thursday with many activists angered by his acceptance of bailout terms more stringent than those voters rejected in a July 5 referendum.

In a clear warning to Syriza rebels, Tsipras said he could be forced to call early elections if he no longer had a parliamentary majority, and suggested an emergency party congress could be held in early September.

Tsipras Seeks to Avert Party Split as Greece’s Creditors Arrive for Talks

By NIKI KITSANTONISJULY 29, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — As representatives of Greece’s international creditors started arriving on Wednesday in the Greek capital for a new round of tough negotiations, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said the country would get relief from its huge debt burden as early as November. He also hit out at dissenters within his party, saying that securing a new bailout deal was a priority.

Amid growing opposition within his leftist Syriza party over the prospect of fresh austerity required under Greece’s third financial rescue in five years, Mr. Tsipras accused dissenters of seeking to manipulate the result of this month’s referendum on bailout terms by claiming it was tantamount to a mandate for a Greek exit from the eurozone. “The Greek people voted no to a bad deal, they did not vote for an exit from the euro,” he said.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

The Threat That Could Save the Euro

By confronting Athens with the possibility of an exit from the currency, Berlin may finally have prompted overdue reforms.

The Wall Street Journal

By MICHAEL HEISE
July 28, 2015 1:54 p.m. ET

Greece may have reached a preliminary settlement with its creditors, but peace and stability have not yet been restored in the eurozone. Recriminations are still flying between Greece and its creditors, and negotiations for a third bailout package will be fraught with difficulty. Meanwhile, the creditor countries are themselves split. Some, like Germany, insist that the principles underlying monetary union are more important than the membership of any one country. Others, such as France, say that more flexibility is needed to keep the euro together.

Merkel's Bavarian ally says Grexit would cause 'utter chaos'

Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:38am EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE
BERLIN
Reuters

A Greek exit from the euro zone would cause "utter chaos" but would have to be accepted if Athens was not willing to implement reforms, Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian ally Horst Seehofer told German newspaper Die Welt on Wednesday.

"No one can predict the consequences of a Grexit other than that a lot of Greece's debts would have to be written off and at the same time monetary help would be necessary," Seehofer, state premier of Bavaria, said to the paper.

Opinion: After Greece, everyone will want a Plan B to leave the euro

Published: July 29, 2015 3:00 a.m. ET
Market Watch
MATTHEW LYNN'S LONDON EYE

It sounds like a Jason Bourne movie. The Varoufakis Legacy, however, named after the recently departed Greek finance minister, might well be slightly more exciting that the fourth installment in the Bourne series was. Featuring hi-tech hacking, a sinister German villain, a complex financial heist, blackmail, bullying and last-minute rescues, it has every element of an action movie, minus only a high-speed car chase through the streets of Athens.

The entertainment value aside, however, Yanis Varoufakis also leaves behind him a far-more significant legacy, and one that will shape the course of the eurozone economy for at least a decade ahead.

Greece Isn't a Morality Tale

2 JUL 29, 2015 2:00 AM EDT
By Mark Buchanan
Bloomberg
One of the more troubling elements of the recent drama over Greece's debt was the urge by many to see a deficiency of national character, rather than euro-zone economics, as the problem. Right-leaning opinion, not only in Germany but around the world, put the trouble down to Greek corruption and, worse, laziness:  The bad people of Greece retire too early and produce less per capita than the European average, despite working longer hours.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Ρωμιο -Anonymous χάκερς

28-7-2015  12:33

Του Πάσχου Μανδραβέλη

Καθημερινή

Ας​ το πούμε όσο πιο ευγενικά και ήπια μπορούμε: ο άνθρωπος είναι για δέσιμο. Οχι γιατί είχε σχέδιο δραχμής, που κανείς δεν του ζήτησε, ούτε επειδή τα είπε φόρα παρτίδα σε μια τηλεδιάσκεψη η οποία μαγνητοσκοπείτο και το ήξερε. Είναι για δέσιμο επειδή πίστευε ότι με ένα χάκερ και την ασύγκριτη -για τον ίδιο- ευφυΐα του, το ελληνικό κράτος θα άλλαζε εν μια νυκτί και θα γινόταν ένας υπεραποτελεσματικός μηχανισμός που θα μπορούσε να διαχειριστεί τη μετάβαση σε άλλο νομισματικό σύστημα.

Greece Made Preparations to Exit Euro

By JACK EWING and NIKI KITSANTONISJULY 27, 2015

The New York Times

FRANKFURT — Already struggling with internal conflict, Greece’s government is facing new criticism over secret preparations that would have allowed the country to leave the euro if necessary.

In a recording released on Monday, Greece’s former finance minister detailed a contingency plan to create an alternative banking system that could switch to a new currency. The system would be “euro-denominated but at the drop of a hat it could be converted into a new drachma,” the former finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, said on the recording of a July 16 interview with an influential investment organization.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Tsipras’s Paradox Is Six Months of Pain and Enduring Popularity

by Maria Petrakis
July 27, 2015 — 12:00 AM EEST

Bloomberg

His party is split, government undermined and the economy lies in tatters. Yet in the rubble of Greece, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reigns supreme.
In the six months since he became prime minister, Tsipras breezed past challengers at home, new and old, as he followed an election victory with backing for his anti-bailout message in a referendum. After yielding to his European peers, next month he may be signing a third financial rescue that he opposed, while capital controls keeping money in Greece remain.

Escaping the Greek Debt Trap

5 JUL 27, 2015 2:00 AM EDT
By Barry Eichengreen , Peter T. Allen & Gary Evans
Greece's debt is unsustainable. The International Monetary Fund has said so, and it's hard to find anyone who disagrees. The Greek government sees structural reform without debt reduction as politically and economically toxic. The main governing party, Syriza, has made debt reduction a central plank of its electoral platform and will find it hard to hold on to power -- much less implement painful structural measures -- absent this achievement.

Moreover, tax increases and spending cuts by themselves will only deepen the Greek slump. Other measures are needed to attract the investment required to jump-start growth. Reducing the debt and its implicit claim on future incomes is an obvious first step.

Greek PM Tsipras under pressure over covert Syriza drachma plan reports


ATHENS | BY ANGELIKI KOUTANTOU
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:05pm EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

Some members of Greece's leftist government wanted to raid central bank reserves and hack taxpayer accounts to prepare a return to the drachma, according to reports on Sunday that highlighted the chaos in the ruling Syriza party.

It is not clear how seriously the plans, attributed to former Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, were considered by the government and both ministers were sacked earlier this month. However the reports have been seized on by opposition parties who have demanded an explanation.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Greece's Debt May Not Be So Daunting

11 JUL 20, 2015 3:13 PM EDT
By Leonid Bershidsky

Bloomberg

Greece's debt burden has taken on mythological attributes and questions about the dominant narrative have become a form of heresy. I, too, have repeated the line that "even the IMF considers Greece's debt unsustainable." Yet that is a half-truth and it has the potential to distort policy.

The assertion comes from a June 26 International Monetary Fund document that Greece's former finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, called a "fascinating read." In his bombastic style, he went on to assert: "Never before has a veritable institution advocated policies that clashed so mercilessly with its own research. Never before has the IMF agreed, on economic analysis, with a government it sought to devastate."

Monday, July 20, 2015

Greece Said to Make ECB Debt Deadline as Banks Reopen

by Eleni ChrepaPaul GordonCarolynn Look
July 20, 2015 — 2:01 AM EEST Updated on July 20, 2015 — 4:22 PM EES

Bloomberg

Greece’s government said it’s repaying 6.8 billion euros ($7.4 billion) to creditors and depositors queued at reopened banks in the first signs of stabilization after last week’s bailout deal.
The country ordered payments on Monday to the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Greek central bank, a Greek Finance Ministry official said on condition of anonymity. The euro rose on the news.
Repaying the ECB was the deadline Greece couldn’t afford to miss because a default would probably have forced the central bank to pull support from Greek lenders, all but ensuring the exit from the currency union. While banks reopened Monday, Greek financial markets will remain closed at least through Wednesday, two officials said.

How Greece’s David fought the Goliath of Europe — and lost


The Washington Post

By Griff Witte, Michael Birnbaum and Anthony Faiola July 19 at 4:06 PM

ATHENS — On a January evening four days before he became the first radical leftist to lead a country in the European Union, Alexis Tsipras bounded to the stage at an outdoor rally in a grubby corner of Athens and proclaimed the imminent end to “our national humiliation.”

Evidence of Greece’s severely degraded state was all around: the graffiti-saturated walls, the abandoned storefronts, the tattered clothes of the thousands who had turned out that night to cheer a man who vowed to not only remake Greece but also transform all of Europe by inspiring leftist movements continent-wide.

Special Report: The man who cost Greece billions

Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:41am EDT
ATHENS | BY DINA KYRIAKIDOU
Reuters

Once again Alexis Tsipras was struggling to make a decision. For hours on July 13, the Greek prime minister and Europe's leaders had been trying to thrash out a new deal to bail out bankrupt Greece and keep the country in the euro zone.

Now a clean copy of the latest text had been printed, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and European Council President Donald Tusk were satisfied with the terms. So too appeared Tsipras – but he left the room to check the details one more time with colleagues in his leftist party Syriza.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

ECB Weighs Emergency Funding After Tsipras Wins Greece Bailout Vote

by Eleni ChrepaNikos ChrysolorasMatthew Campbell
July 16, 2015 — 1:55 AM EEST Updated on July 16, 2015 — 10:13 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Greek lawmakers passed a bailout agreement that keeps the country in the euro for now, shifting attention to the European Central Bank as it weighs whether to pump more money into the country’s hobbled financial system.
After more than four hours of debate stretching into the early hours of Thursday, 229 members of the 300-seat parliament in Athens approved new austerity measures that are a precondition of as much as 86 billion euros ($94 billion) in aid. Among those who opposed the bill were 32 members of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, a sign the premier may have lost his majority.

Leaving Euro Is Better Than Eternal Greek Crisis

JUL 15, 2015 2:50 PM EDT
By Justin Fox
Bloomberg
You may believe that Greece’s economic pain is mostly the doing of heartless and inept decision makers in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin. You may believe that the Greeks’ fecklessness has been so extreme that cutting them any kind of slack will destroy the credibility of the euro.

Either way, by this point you can probably agree that it was a mistake for Greece to join the European common currency in 2001. Maybe you think it was a mistake because doing so put the Greeks at the mercy of a bunch of austerity-crazed Northern European politicians. Maybe you think it was a mistake because the Greeks cheated to get in to the euro and have no business pretending to be part of a modern developed economy. I’m guessing hardly anyone would argue, though, that Greece and Europe would be worse off today if drachmas had never been traded in for euros.

Greece, Its Back to the Wall, Adopts Austerity Steps

By SUZANNE DALEY and JAMES KANTERJULY 15, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Under threat from the nation’s creditors to move quickly or lose any chance of obtaining a desperately needed new bailout package, Greece’s Parliament approved painful new austerity measures early Thursday, virtually guaranteeing that life would get harder for millions of Greeks.

With banks closed and the economy on the verge of collapse, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had urged the adoption of the measures, saying that while it was a difficult deal the creditors were offering, it was the only one available and would avert a humanitarian and fiscal disaster.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Saving Greece, Saving Europe


JUL 13, 2015
By BARRY EICHENGREEN


BERKELEY – Whatever one thinks about the tactics of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government in negotiations with the country’s creditors, the Greek people deserve better than what they are being offered. Germany wants Greece to choose between economic collapse and leaving the eurozone. Both options would mean economic disaster; the first, if not both, would be politically disastrous as well.

Greek crisis: One sentence that explains the epic disaster Syriza has been for Greece

Updated by Ezra Klein on July 13, 2015, 2:30 p.m. ET

http://www.vox.com/2015/7/13/8949925/greece-syriza


This, from Wonkblog's Matt O'Brien, is the pithiest summary I've seen of the disaster Syriza has visited upon Greece:

Syriza has incurred a lot of the costs of leaving the euro—like a financial crisis—at the same time that it’s kept the costs of staying in the euro.

That's exactly right — and it has to count as one of the greatest policymaking failures in recent economic history.

Greece May Have to Sell Islands and Ruins Under Its Bailout Deal

Simon Shuster / Athens @shustry  July 13, 2015

TIME

Of all the aspects of Monday’s bailout deal that Greeks found humiliating, nothing drilled into their sense of pride quite like their government’s promise to sell off “valuable Greek assets” to the tune of 50 billion euros. The seven-page agreement, which European leaders thrashed out over the weekend, made no mention of where Greece is supposed to find that much property to sell. But as they scrambled for options, officials in Athens saw no way around the blood-curdling prospect of auctioning off Greek islands, nature preserves or even ancient ruins.

Saturday, July 11, 2015

Greece Needs €74 Billion in Fresh Funding

Assessment comes from three institutions overseeing the eurozone bailout program

The Wall Street Journal

By GABRIELE STEINHAUSER and  VIKTORIA DENDRINOU
July 11, 2015 4:42 a.m. ET

BRUSSELSGreece will need €74 billion ($82.55 billion) in fresh funding, the three institutions overseeing the eurozone bailout program said in their assessment of the country’s request for a new aid package, according to three European officials.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Setting a Deadline for Greece Proves Much Easier Than Sealing a Fate

By ANDREW HIGGINSJULY 8, 2015

The New York Times

BRUSSELS — After five years of crises, conflicts and deadlines that have come and gone without resolution, Greece and the European countries that have been propping it up financially have come to what they all insist is a final reckoning, with just days to decide whether Greece stays in the euro system or is cast out.

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

No Should Mean No to Protect the Euro From Greece

JUL 8, 2015 7:25 AM EDT
By Mark Gilbert
Bloomberg
Even before Greece's referendum last weekend, European Union leaders said it would be interpreted as a vote on whether to stay in the euro. So it's curious that Greece has been given five more days to come up with a credible plan to receive another bailout package. It's also downright dangerous for the European project's future integrity.  While German Chancellor Angela Merkel doesn't want to preside over a fracture of the European Union's finest achievement, she needs to concede the inevitable: The euro will be better off without Greece, and Greece may well be better off without the euro.

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Can Greece Rescue Itself?

JUL 6, 2015 4:48 PM EDT
By The Editors

Bloomberg

Greece has given Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras what he asked for: It has rejected the terms offered by its creditors for further financial help. With this vote, the country has taken a bold stride toward a political and economic precipice.

It's now for Tsipras to decide whether Greece goes over the edge. To avoid it, he will need to astonish the creditors and everybody else by reinventing himself -- immediately. In the meantime, Europe must plan for Greece's exit from the euro system.

Greece faces last chance to stay in euro as cash runs out

Tue Jul 7, 2015 2:44am EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE
BRUSSELS/ATHENS | BY PAUL TAYLOR AND COSTAS PITAS

Reuters

Greece faces a last chance to stay in the euro zone on Tuesday when Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras puts proposals to an emergency euro zone summit after Greek voters resoundingly rejected the austerity terms of a defunct bailout.

With Greek banks rapidly running out of cash and the European Central Bank slowly tightening the noose on their funding, Tsipras must persuade the bloc's other 18 leaders, many of whom are exasperated after five years of Greek crisis, to open rapid negotiations for a major new loan to rescue his country.

Rift Emerges as Europe Gears Up for New Talks on Greece Bailout

By LIZ ALDERMAN and JACK EWINGJULY 6, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENSGermany continued to maintain a hard line with Athens on Monday, just a day after Greek voters decisively rejected a bailout deal from its creditors. But some European countries showed a willingness to soften the push for austerity that has proved so contentious.

The growing rift among European leaders threatens to complicate any new negotiations, as the Greek government moves to restart talks for an international bailout. It also adds to the pressure on Greece, which is close to financial collapse with both the banking system and the government quickly running out of money.

Greece Hits the Self-Destruct Button

 JUL 6, 2015 9:13 AM EDT
By Megan McArdle
Greece has decisively voted "no" or "oxi" in the #greferendum. I mean, decisively. By Sunday afternoon here in the U.S., the election map was a solid sea of orange for the "no" side.

I am shocked. I probably shouldn't be. I've been pointing out for a while that countries often do seemingly crazy things to themselves when they are mad at foreigners. The worst possible analysis of any sort of international situation is to say "Obviously, they're not going to do that, because that would be crazy!" There were probably a lot of reporters standing around saying that in 1914, while the crazy people went off and started World War I.

Monday, July 6, 2015

Global Debt Exceeds $100 Trillion as Governments Binge, BIS Says

by John Glover
March 9, 2014 — 1:00 PM EET

Bloomberg

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The amount of debt globally has soared more than 40 percent to $100 trillion since the first signs of the financial crisis as governments borrowed to pull their economies out of recession and companies took advantage of record low interest rates, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

Stocks, euro fall but no rout after Greek 'No'

Mon Jul 6, 2015 4:39am EDT Related: GREECE
LONDON | BY NIGEL STEPHENSON

Reuters

Shares fell in Europe and Asia, the euro stumbled and yields on weaker euro zone economies' bonds rose after Greece overwhelmingly voted against conditions for a rescue package, but there was no rout and contagion was limited.

Investors sought low-risk assets including Bunds, but the yield premium of Italian 10-year debt over Germany remained below last Monday's eight-month highs.

The Catharsis of a Greek Exit


JUL 6, 2015 4:04 AM EDT
By Mark Gilbert

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis's  resignation -- even after Greek voters firmly backed the government's refusal to accept its creditors' demands for economic austerity -- is the clearest sign yet that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is serious about getting a new bailout deal. Unfortunately, it's probably too late to keep Greece in the euro.

The euro zone now faces a horrible choice. Tsipras will resume negotiations claiming to have a fresh democratic mandate, making it unlikely he'll accede to the tax and pensions changes he's previously rejected. So a new bargain would look awfully like Greece getting its own way -- a reward for bad faith and bad behavior. Kicking Greece out of the euro, on the other hand, would prove once and for all that euro membership can be revoked. Nevertheless, the latter option remains the better of two bad choices.

Emerging ‘No’ Vote in Greece Poses Merkel’s Biggest Challenge

German leader’s response will shape future eurozone, but options are limited

The Wall Street Journal

By BERTRAND BENOIT
Updated July 5, 2015 6:03 p.m. ET
14 COMMENTS
BERLIN—The resounding “no” vote in Greece on Sunday presents German Chancellor Angela Merkel with her toughest challenge since the eurozone crisis broke out five years ago.

Her choice is now between yielding to Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras and sweetening the bailout terms for his country, or sticking to her hard line—and her own voters’ sentiment—in refusing any further concession.

Goodbye Greece: No Vote Means Grexit Is Finally Inevitable

JUL 6, 2015 @ 12:01 AM 4,397 VIEWS

Chris Wright ,CONTRIBUTOR
I write about banking and finance in Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

Forbes

Greece has spoken – and it says ‘oki’.

That’s no, to most of us: no to further austerity, no to a previous deal offered by the EU, IMF and other creditors, and no, effectively, to staying in the euro. The rhetoric from Greece – such as Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis saying: “The government can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors]” – seems to suggest that the government believes it can stay in the euro and use its referendum as a method to strength its own negotiating position. But the problem is, nobody with any power in Europe seems to share that view. They all think Greece has effectively voted to leave.

Friday, July 3, 2015

If Greece is ejected from the euro zone, it faces a chaotic currency switch

Washington Post
By Michael Birnbaum and Anthony Faiola July 2 at 8:03 PM  


ATHENS — The choice can be attractive for nations in financial peril: Stop paying debts, fire up the printing presses and flood the zone with cash. But the euro, for Greece, foreclosed that option. Now, longtime advocates of an exit from the shared currency may soon prevail.

If Greeks vote this Sunday against the harsh austerity that Europe has demanded in exchange for a financial lifeline, European Union leaders have said that Greece will eject itself from the euro zone. The transition would be a financial experiment run on the fly — and even some who have long championed Greece’s old currency say they are worried about the chaos that could ensue.

As referendum looms, Greece struggles to agree on the question


The Washington Post

By Griff Witte July 2 at 6:25 PM 

ATHENS — With just a day officially to go in a blink-and-you-miss-it campaign that could shape this country’s direction for decades, Greece is bitterly divided not only over how to vote but also over what question people are being asked to decide on.

To the radical leftist government and other “no” supporters, Sunday’s referendum represents a verdict on Europe’s latest cuts-for-cash bailout proposal — even though the offer no longer stands.

To the opposition and those backing “yes,” the choice is between sticking with Europe or going it alone.

Greeks Split Down Middle Before Bailout Referendum: Bloomberg Poll

by Nikos ChrysolorasMatthew Campbell
July 3, 2015 — 8:00 AM EEST Updated on July 3, 2015 — 9:14 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Greece is divided right down the middle heading into Sunday’s referendum on European bailout proposals, portending even more upheaval for the stricken nation.
A poll commissioned by Bloomberg News showed 43 percent intend to vote “no” to reject the austerity demanded by creditors in exchange for financial aid; 42.5 percent back a “yes” to accept the conditions, the survey of 1,042 people by the University of Macedonia Research Institute of Applied Social and Economic Studies showed. The margin of error was 3 percent.

Greece Is Doing Democracy Wrong

JUL 3, 2015 2:00 AM EDT
Bloomberg
By Noah Feldman
The Greeks invented democracy. So it might seem natural and appropriate that they’re having a referendum Sunday to decide whether to take a bailout deal previously offered by the European Union that would require austerity measures.

But in fact, under conditions of crisis, a referendum is a truly terrible idea. There are times when going around elected representatives is democratically valuable -- but in the middle of a life-or-death negotiation isn’t one of them. It’s a fantasy to think that some magical “popular will” can emerge from the vote by a divided Greek public.

In a crisis, effective democracy requires an elected leader to do what he or she thinks is right -- and take the consequences later, when elections are called. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s failure to do this isn’t democratic -- it’s irresponsible hedging in the hopes of maintaining popularity even after a change in the policies that elected him. The popular will is in any case a useful fiction, as the Greek public is soon to learn, in case they’ve forgotten.

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Plight of Greek pensioners heaps pressure on Tsipras

Thu Jul 2, 2015 3:23am EDT Related: GREECE
ATHENS | BY LEFTERIS KARAGIANNOPOULOS

Reuters

Long lines of pensioners jostling to get into a limited number of banks opened specially to pay out retirement benefits have become a powerful symbol of the misery facing Greece and the problems mounting for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

With banks closed down and capital controls imposed to shield the financial system from collapse, the depth of the problems facing the country has become clearer each day.

Tsipras' leftwing government came to power in January vowing to protect pensioners and much of the breakdown in relations with international creditors centered on its refusal to accept the cuts in pensions that the lenders demanded.

Greek Referendum on Bailout Too Close to Call, Poll Shows

The battle lines are drawn in Greece. Now the politicians are waiting for the people.
by Nikos Chrysoloras
July 2, 2015 — 10:27 AM EEST
Bloomberg

Greek voters are almost evenly split heading into a referendum in three days that European leaders said could plunge the country into economic darkness.
A GPO poll cited by euro2day.gr said 47 percent leaned toward a “yes” vote, an endorsement of austerity and the international bailout. The “no” camp, the government’s position rejecting those terms, was 43 percent. The margin of error in the survey of 1,000 people was 3.1 percentage points.
The battle lines ahead of the vote appeared immovable after a day of posturing in the wake of the expiry of Greece’s bailout deal and its missing a payment to the International Monetary Fund. Politicians across Europe poured scorn on Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s strategy; he said the “no” vote would improve his leverage.

The 'Demerging' Greek Economy

28 JUL 1, 2015 12:34 PM EDT
By Marc Champion
Bloomberg
Greece may need a category of its own as it struggles with unmanageable debt and the prospect of falling out of the euro: That of a "demerging" economy.

The idea of emerging economies -- formerly poor, badly run and closed markets that open up and reform to produce rapid catch-up growth -- is well-known. We have acronyms such as BRICS and MINTs to group them.

Bankruptcy is a real possibility for Greece. Does its leader have a plan?


The Washington Post

By Michael Birnbaum and Anthony Faiola July 1 at 7:59 PM

ATHENS — Even Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s inner circle appeared Wednesday to be asking the question that has been on the minds of European Union leaders for months: Does he have a game plan as bankruptcy looms in his struggling Mediterranean nation?

The charismatic prime minister’s path toward political survival seems to be quickly narrowing. Just five months after the leftist Tsipras swept to office amid bold promises to reshape Europe’s ­debate about how to secure its economic future, his nation may be pushed off the euro if it votes Sunday against its creditors’ tough austerity demands. And if Greeks defy Tsipras by voting to take the E.U. deal, he will face heavy pressure to resign.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Greek referendum poll shows lead for 'No' vote, but narrowing

Wed Jul 1, 2015 6:39am EDT Related: GREECE
Reuters

A majority of Greeks would vote 'No' to the terms of a proposed bailout deal by foreign lenders but the lead narrowed significantly after banks were closed this week, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday.

The poll, conducted between June 28-30 and published in the Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper, showed 54 percent of those planning to vote in Sunday's referendum would oppose the bailout against 33 percent in favor.

Europe Wants to Punish Greece With Exit

158 JUL 1, 2015 12:01 AM EDT
By Clive Crook
 Bloomberg
In my more than 30 years writing about politics and economics, I have never before witnessed such an episode of sustained, self-righteous, ruinous and dissembling incompetence -- and I'm not talking about Alexis Tsipras and Syriza. As the damage mounts, the effort to rewrite the history of the European Union's abject failure over Greece is already underway. Pending a fuller postmortem, a little clarity on the immediate issues is in order.

On Monday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said at a news conference that he'd been betrayed by the Greek government.