Thursday, January 8, 2015

Greek Opposition Still Holds Slim Lead in Polls Before Elections

Syriza Party Ahead in Voter Surveys, but Narrow Margin Shrinks


By ALKMAN GRANITSAS
Updated Jan. 7, 2015 4:15 p.m. ET
The Wall Street Journal
ATHENSGreece’s leftist opposition party continued to hold a narrow lead ahead of this month’s national elections, although it appears to be shrinking, two public opinion polls showed Wednesday.

The polls show the Syriza party, which opposes Greece’s financial bailout and its economic reforms, garnering between 28.5% and 31.6% of the vote, placing it ahead of the governing New Democracy party, which has been implementing the economic austerity measures.

New Democracy would get between 25.3% and 28.6% of the vote, according to the two polls, for the Mega television channel and the weekly To Pontiki newspaper.


The polls were the first taken since former Prime Minister George Papandreou announced last week the formation of a new party, the Movement of Social Democrats. According to both surveys, Mr. Papandreou’s party would struggle to meet the 3% threshold needed to enter Parliament, garnering just 2.5% to 2.6% of the vote.

Greece’s coalition government—comprising both New Democracy and its junior partner, the socialist Pasok party—has been forced to hold snap elections on Jan. 25 after the Greek Parliament failed last month to agree on a new head of state.

Since then, New Democracy has tried to cast the coming election as a de facto referendum on Greece’s future in the eurozone. It says that Syriza’s opposition to economic reform policies and its demands for a debt write-off would lead to an open break with Greece’s eurozone partners, who have financed the country’s €240 billion ($284 billion) bailout.

Syriza rejects the criticism, saying that the government is fear-mongering to win votes, recalling New Democracy’s narrow victory in the previous elections in 2012, when voters were frightened at the prospect of a Greek exit from the eurozone. But the Syriza party continues to demand debt relief from the eurozone and promises to roll back many of the austerity and reform measures Greece has undertaken in exchange for the aid.

The latest polls, however, show that the fear tactic may be having some effect. Both polls showed that Syriza’s lead over New Democracy has shrunk, falling to 3.2 percentage points in the Mega survey, down from 4.9 percentage points in mid-December. The survey in the To Pontiki newspaper likewise shows Syriza’s lead narrowing to 3.0 percentage points—within the margin of error for the poll—down from 3.3 percentage points previously.

The poll for To Pontiki, was conducted by the Alco polling agency, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points and was based on a sample of 1,000 respondents interviewed between Jan. 4 and 6. Statistical details for the Mega poll, conducted by the GPO polling agency, weren't available.

“The polls seem to show that Syriza is headed for victory,” said John Dimakis at STR, an Athens-based communications consultancy. “But the margin has definitely narrowed in the last few days.”

Under Greece’s electoral rules, the winning party is automatically awarded 50 bonus seats in Greece’s 300-seat legislature, a measure aimed at facilitating the stability of an elected government. But the recent polls suggest that neither Syriza nor New Democracy would secure enough votes—even with that 50-seat bonus—to win an absolute majority in Parliament, forcing either to seek coalition partners.

Write to Alkman Granitsas at alkman.granitsas@wsj.com



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